Manufacturing

Manufacturing will continue to shrink in North Carolina over the next decade, although in general it should remain more resilient than the U.S. manufacturing economy as a whole. In relative terms, manufacturing is projected to fall from 15.3 percent of total 2004 nonagricultural employment to 11.3 percent in the year 2014.

Manufacturing's decreasing share of North Carolina’s workforce may be attributed to numerous factors. Steadily improving production technology together with increasing automation is contributing to improved industrial productivity, thereby producing the same or greater amount of goods and services with fewer production workers. Additionally, increased employment in the non-manufacturing sector will continue to contribute to the declining share of workers employed in manufacturing. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has also contributed to the decrease in manufacturing employment in North Carolina, as some industries have moved their operations to Mexico, and other industries have moved to Asia.

Despite the relatively meager change in manufacturing employment overall, a significant number of openings will be available in this sector of North Carolina's economy. While manufacturing will not generate large numbers of new jobs, a sizable number of openings will occur to replace existing employees due to turnover, retirement, death, or other reasons.
 

Figure 3
NC Manufacturing Jobs as Percent of Total Employment
1994, 2004 and 2014

           1994                                2004                               2014

Data source: Labor Market Information Division, ESC

Growing Services Industries

Most of North Carolina's employment growth will be in service-providing industries. Overall growth in this category is expected to average 2.03 percent per year, adding 664,350 jobs to the state's economy for total employment of 4,785,120 by 2014. The top three industries continue to be:

• Professional and Business Services
• Educational and Health Services
• Leisure and Hospitality
   

Goods-Producing Industries

During the same period, goods-producing industries will experience minimal growth, at 0.05 percent per year, adding only 4,340 new jobs. However, with overall employment of 818,360, many openings will be available to replace existing workers because of retirement, turnover, or other reasons.
 

Figure 4
NC Employment Projections
for Service-Providing and Goods-Producing Industries
(Number Employed)
2004 - 2014

Data source: Projection Unit, Labor Market Information Division, ESC

Figure 5
NC Projected Employment Growth
for Service-Providing and Goods-Producing Industries
(Annual Growth Rate)
2004 - 2014

Data source: Projection Unit, Labor Market Information Division, ESC

Figure 6
NC Projected Employment Growth by Industry Supersector
(Annual Growth Rate)
 2004 - 2014

Data source: Projection Unit, Labor Market Information Division, ESC

Figure 7
NC Projected Employment Growth by Supersector
(Number Employed)
2004 - 2014

 Data Source: Projection Unit, Labor Market Information Division, ESC

NOTE:  Prepared by the Labor Market Information Division, NC ESC. A similar treatment of "Trends" nationally, prepared by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, can be viewed as part of their Occupational Outlook Handbook.
 

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