Population Growth

North Carolina will experience varying population and workforce growth during the next decade. Annual growth rates for population and workforce were 1.2 and 1.9 percent, respectively, during the 1990s. During the next decade these growth rates are expected to converge at around 1.7 percent.

Population growth, which sets the ultimate limits on workforce and employment growth, is due to a number of factors, primarily birth rates and migration.

In-migration has been an influential force in North Carolina’s past growth patterns. In-migration during the first half of the 1990s steadily increased from around 75,000 to nearly 120,000 annually. In the second half of the 1990s, it steadily declined from 120,000 to around 85,000. With the decline in the birth rate, in-migration will remain an important source of the state's population growth.
 

Median Age

Slower growth due primarily to lower birth rates has substantially altered the age structure of North Carolina's population in recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. The median age of the state’s population rose from 26.5 in 1970 to 36.2 in 2000. By the year 2010 the median age is projected to be 38.5, after which it will begin a slight decline.

The aging of North Carolina’s population and workforce will have numerous and diverse impacts on the state’s economy during the coming decade, most of which should be favorable.

In particular, an older, more experienced workforce, combined with an increase in the capital-labor ratio, should produce real gains in productivity, particularly in manufacturing.

The working-age adult population (25-64) will increase during the next decade, but by much less in absolute and percentage terms than in previous decades. Furthermore, the great majority of the increase will occur in the older half of the working-age population (45-64). Growth in preschool (0-4) and school-age (5-17) groups will not substantially bolster the size of the workforce during the next decade.
 

Racial Composition

In recent years much has been made of the projected changes in the racial composition of the U.S. workforce. North Carolina's Hispanic population was small in 1990 (76,726). However, a very large increase occurred over the next decade. By 2000 the Hispanic population reached 378,963, an increase of nearly 400%.

Reliable growth rates of the Hispanic population in NC are difficult to project. For example, the Census estimates that North Carolina's Hispanic population will increase from 121,000 in 2000 to 169,000 by 2015. However, these figures do not include undocumented immigrants, which substantially underestimates the already existing Hispanic population.

Between 2004 and 2014, North Carolina's white population is expected to grow from 6,378,000 to 7,260,000, while the nonwhite population is projected to expand from 2,162,000 to 2,628,000.
 

Figure 2
NC Projected Population Growth 2004 - 2014

Data source: State Demographics, NC Office of the State Planning

Gender Composition

In the past few decades women’s participation in the state’s workforce has risen dramatically, from 37 percent in 1960 to 54 percent in 1980. By 1990 women’s workforce participation rate reached 60 percent.

These increases are due to a number of factors. First, changing social views have made it acceptable for more women to seek careers. Second, the economic conditions throughout the 1970s and early 1980s made it difficult for one-income families to meet expenses. Third, more women are working because of the increase in households headed by women. Finally, the continuing shift from goods-producing to service-providing employment has altered the occupational structure in ways that have improved women’s job prospects.

All of these changes will continue to bolster female participation rates in the near future. However, the “revolutionary” entrance of women into North Carolina's workforce has essentially been completed. In terms of workforce participation, the gap between men and women has shrunk continuously since at least 1940. It stood at 16 percent in 1990 (men, 76 percent; women, 60 percent) and is expected to shrink even more in the future, but at a much lower rate than that achieved over the last three decades. In 2000 the gap declined to nearly 14 percent (men, 75.3 percent; women 61.6 percent).

Estimates on total new entrants by sex to North Carolina's workforce are not available either as historical or projected series. However, patterns in North Carolina are not expected to depart significantly from national trends. Men are projected to constitute a slightly larger share of new entrants to the national workforce than women. White non-Hispanic men and women will constitute the vast majority of new entrants to North Carolina's workforce, and men and women will contribute about equally to this total.

NOTE:  Prepared by the Labor Market Information Division, NC ESC. A similar treatment of "Trends" nationally, prepared by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, can be viewed as part of their Occupational Outlook Handbook.
 

Home  |  Career Management  |  Self-Assessment  |  Career Exploration
Education & Training  |  Job Search  |  Products & Services  |  Events
Privacy Policy & Terms of Use
 

© 2008 North Carolina Career Resource Network

More NC Labor Market Trends:

v   Employers

v Industry

v Industry vs.  
      Occupation

v Occupations